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Statistical Risk Assessment

The Statistical Risk Assessments provide rigorous estimates of risks of state-led mass killing in all countries worldwide with populations larger than 500,000. These assessments represent the average of forecasts from a few statistical models representing different ideas about the causes and precursors of mass atrocities. In essence, our models learn from the past to identify patterns that can help us spot cases at high risk of mass killing now and in the future.

Expert Opinion Pool

The Expert Opinion Pool summarizes subject-matter and regional experts’ current beliefs about a country’s risks of mass atrocities and other events of interest or concern. Individual experts are often unreliable forecasters of rare and complex events, but crowds of experts, even small ones, usually do much better. Our opinion pool is a structured way of putting this “wisdom of the crowd” principle into action to assess and then track change over time in risks of mass atrocities around the world.

Early Warning Project Blog

The Early Warning Project blog provides regular analysis of at-risk countries and evolving situations. We use the blog to explore specific cases in more depth, to track ongoing events, to call out related research and advocacy, and to hear from guest bloggers and interviewees with expertise on atrocities early warning or prevention or specific countries and regions.