Which Countries Are Most Likely to Suffer Onsets of State-Led Mass Killing in 2015?

Sep 21, 2015

Other Posts

Jun 14, 2014

Forecasters in the Early Warning Project's Expert Opinion Pool continue to see Iraq at high risk of an episode of state-led mass killing.

Nov 04, 2015

How the Early Warning Project defines a mass killing and why we chose that definition.

Oh I forgot Ethiopia. I know it is the darling of the international community but that is all smoke and mirrors. None of the civil society issues were really fixed and now that are facing a very large drought. The instability in Eritrea will play a role. Guns are readily available from Al Shabab and they want pay back big time. They will arm the dissident factions on the border areas. Once again I guess my view as a contrarian is showing.
By: ilhamkocache · June 09, 2016 3:54pm
Though I respect your focus on statistical factors perhaps there are three countries that should be closely watched. First, Mugabe may die in the next 18 months. There is already significant civil unrest. Drought has crippled the nation and food prices are rising. The transition from Mugabe will be as bloody as anything in the DRC. Second, I believe one should start watching South Africa. Daily protests that are turning violent are happening. The drought is hitting prices. the non SoAfr population will be attacked first as things get scarce. This has already happened but been tamped down. Their economy is tanking. No electricity. Mozambique was going to built a coal plant but is not going to happen. The solar tower in bork is a huge disaster. The ANC is too corrupt. They just pressured SABC to stop reporting on the protests that means news of mass killings will seep out slowly. I know this fits none of your statistical models but perhaps first person knowledge can be useful. Ilham
By: ilhamkocache · June 09, 2016 3:42pm

About the Expert Warning Project Blog

The Early Warning Project blog provides regular analysis of at-risk countries and evolving situations around the world.

The Early Warning Project blog features posts in several categories, including our annual Statistical Risk Assessments and occasional updates to them; alerts about, and analysis of, forecasts from our Expert Opinion Pool; reactions to relevant news from specific countries and regions; pointers to interesting new research on mass killing and prevention; and interviews with members of the genocide prevention community.

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