Which Countries Are Most Likely to Suffer Onsets of State-Led Mass Killing in 2015?

Sep 21, 2015

Other Posts

Mar 15, 2014

Right now, we’re asking our experts to consider whether or not the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) will adopt a resolution concerning Sri Lanka during its 25th regular session, which began this week and ends March 28.

Apr 04, 2014

Considering the relative instability of Chad’s neighbors and Chad’s history of coups and ethnic conflict, why do our experts see such a low chance of a mass killing episode, and what might change their predictions?

Oh I forgot Ethiopia. I know it is the darling of the international community but that is all smoke and mirrors. None of the civil society issues were really fixed and now that are facing a very large drought. The instability in Eritrea will play a role. Guns are readily available from Al Shabab and they want pay back big time. They will arm the dissident factions on the border areas. Once again I guess my view as a contrarian is showing.
By: ilhamkocache · June 09, 2016 3:54pm
Though I respect your focus on statistical factors perhaps there are three countries that should be closely watched. First, Mugabe may die in the next 18 months. There is already significant civil unrest. Drought has crippled the nation and food prices are rising. The transition from Mugabe will be as bloody as anything in the DRC. Second, I believe one should start watching South Africa. Daily protests that are turning violent are happening. The drought is hitting prices. the non SoAfr population will be attacked first as things get scarce. This has already happened but been tamped down. Their economy is tanking. No electricity. Mozambique was going to built a coal plant but is not going to happen. The solar tower in bork is a huge disaster. The ANC is too corrupt. They just pressured SABC to stop reporting on the protests that means news of mass killings will seep out slowly. I know this fits none of your statistical models but perhaps first person knowledge can be useful. Ilham
By: ilhamkocache · June 09, 2016 3:42pm

About the Expert Warning Project Blog

The Early Warning Project blog provides regular analysis of at-risk countries and evolving situations around the world.

The Early Warning Project blog features posts in several categories, including our annual Statistical Risk Assessments and occasional updates to them; alerts about, and analysis of, forecasts from our Expert Opinion Pool; reactions to relevant news from specific countries and regions; pointers to interesting new research on mass killing and prevention; and interviews with members of the genocide prevention community.

If you are interested in writing a guest post on our blog, please be in touch.