Early Warning Project Blog

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Recent Posts

Jun 11, 2018

For the fifth year in a row, the Early Warning Project ran a wiki survey in December to poll opinions on countries' relative risks of mass killing onsets.

Dec 04, 2017

To help us forecast atrocity risk in 2018, please participate in our annual wiki survey.

Sep 25, 2017

Since April, 317 participants have cast 7025 forecasts in response to questions asking about mass killing risk in 16 countries that the project has identified as high risk. Today the highest risk country is Burma (Myanmar), with a 55% risk on September 18, up from 8% on August 31.

Jul 28, 2017

The Simon-Skjodt Center for Prevention of Genocide recently concluded the field research portion of our latest Early Warning Project country assessment, focusing on plausible scenarios that could lead to mass atrocities in Mali. This post discusses how we selected Mali as a country of focus and provides a preliminary update on the results of our research. The first steps towards effective prevention are to acknowledge that mass atrocities could actually happen and seek to understand how the un

May 22, 2017

Last month, we shared the results of our Early Warning Project’s latest Statistical Risk Assessment (SRA) — a list of 163 countries ranked by their risk for onset of state-led mass killing.As we’ve taken our results on the road, we’ve found that we are commonly asked some variation of this question: “This is all very interesting, but what am I supposed to do with it?”

Apr 12, 2017

Our annual Statistical Risk Assessment is a rigorous estimate of the risk of deliberate killing of more than 1,000 civilians within a country by that country’s government or its agents—that is, state-led mass killing—in all countries with populations of more than 500,000.

Mar 31, 2017

Good Judgment Inc (GJ), the Early Warning Project (EWP), and the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum (USHMM) are excited to announce an expanded partnership in 2017-2018. As followers of our work know, the EWP produces two types of complementary risk assessments. The first is our annual statistical risk assessment ranking countries most at risk of mass killing and the second is a “wisdom of crowds” process called an <

Mar 30, 2017

The Early Warning Project uses patterns from past instances of mass killing to forecast when new mass killing episodes might happen in the future. At the end of each year we update a list of countries experiencing state- and nonstate-led mass killing. The following report compiles our determinations for onsets of mass killing in 2016 and those cases that we can now judge have ended.

Mar 22, 2017

The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide is pleased to announce a new research fellowship focused on increasing knowledge of early warning for mass atrocities in countries that the Early Warning Project has determined to have a high risk for mass atrocities.

About the Expert Warning Project Blog

The Early Warning Project blog provides regular analysis of at-risk countries and evolving situations around the world.

The Early Warning Project blog features posts in several categories, including our annual Statistical Risk Assessments and occasional updates to them; alerts about, and analysis of, forecasts from our Expert Opinion Pool; reactions to relevant news from specific countries and regions; pointers to interesting new research on mass killing and prevention; and interviews with members of the genocide prevention community.

If you are interested in writing a guest post on our blog, please be in touch.